Probabilistic ENSO forecast using BoM forecast model in collaboration with CSIRO

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), consisting of El Niño and La Niña events that occur every few years, influences year-to-year variations in temperature and rainfall over every continent and is one of the dominant influences over Australia. It may be possible to make simple predictions regarding the state of ENSO that answer simple questions such as “will next year be a La Niña?” annually, using existing forecast models. Can such statements be made with confidence, and are some types of events more likely to be correctly forecasted than others? This pilot project aims to assess what the limits of such forecasts are, and the circumstances under which forecasters can or cannot make such statements with confidence. This project will entail answering these questions using the Bureau of Meteorology’s forecast model, in order to improve ENSO forecasts for Australia in collaboration with CSIRO’s Data61. A student working on this problem will learn the basics of climate science and probabilistic forecasting, and will gain hands-on experience working with state-of-the-art climate data programming packages in Python and real climate forecast outputs. There will also be opportunities to interact with the BoM’s seasonal forecasting team. —